All portions of this document are Unclassified

COAMPS-OS^® HAZONE Hazard Estimation

General Information

Overview

HAZONE uses the VLSTRACK ver. 3.0 program to provide approximate downwind hazard predictions, based on meteorological data from all enabled sources, for chemical/biological attack scenarios defined via the Station Editor GUI. Scenarios may be created for a wide range of agents and munitions. The Scenario Configuration interface provides reasonable default parameter values, which may be overridden, to simplify the scenario creation process. When new meteorological data becomes available from the enabled computer models (usually hourly), HAZONE creates hourly maps from the VLSTRACK-calculated agent dosage, concentration, and deposition dispersion grids for up to 5 hours, assuming the attack occurred at the time of the latest meteorological data set. Agent deposition maps are created for only the first hour after attack, since there is little change for subsequent hours. Thus, HAZONE provides an immediate and continually-updated picture of the scenario hazard, until the location, agent, munition and time of an actual attack is known and the hazard can be evaluated.

Meteorological Data

For projects with multiple, nested grids, HAZONE will use up to three grids, starting from the outermost grid. The maximum dimensions for each grid are 160 points E-W, 160 points N-S, and 32 levels. The following COAMPS output parameters are required in order to produce HAZONE products, and may be selected using the COAMPS-OS GUI. The frequency of sigma output should be set to 3 hours or a higher frequency. Each sigma level field may have data for as many as 32 levels.

HAZONE needs 5 hours (configurable parameter) of data for each product run (starting hour + 4). When a model run completes each of its hourly forecasts (a few minutes apart), it calls HAZONE with the tau of current forecast. HAZONE waits until 5 hours of data is available and the starting tau is equal to or greater than the current time, producing products for as many as 12 taus in a model run, based on models running at 12-hour intervals (configurable parameter). In the case of short-term forecast model runs, or model runs which are scheduled to run late in a 12-hour Date-Time-Group, HAZONE may run fewer than 12 times, leaving gaps, indicated by an X, in the Station/Tau product matrix. For example: A 24-hour model run which completes during tau 12 of a base Date-Time-Group starting at 0Z will call HAZONE with data for taus 0 through 24. HAZONE will ignore data for taus 0 through 12, since they are not current, and will produce products for starting taus 13 through 20, since there is insufficient data for starting taus after tau 20 (requires starting hour + 4), completing only 8 of 12 possible product runs.

Agents/Munitions

HAZONE installs UNCLASSIFIED "dummy" versions of VLSTRACK's munition parameter file and chemical/biological agent parameter file. The characteristics of specific foreign weapons systems are usually classified; however, the UNCLASSIFIED munitions parameter file contains physical properties for generic munitions which are representative of those size-type combinations. Physical properties for chemical agents, including toxicity values, have been mostly declassified. Characterizations for biological agents and for new or novel chemical agents are still classified, necessitating the installation of separate classified files. Each munition in the munition parameter file has an associated fill agent appropriate to the munition. Selecting a munition from the list in the HAZONE Scenario Configuration interface (see Station Editor GUI) automatically selects the associated fill agent and its parameters. The user may then select a different agent from the agent parameter file.

VLSTRACK munitions are classified in the following categories :

• Type category 1 designates a small munition which can only produce a single point source; munitions of this type include artillery shells, rockets, mortars, and mines. These munitions tend to have a low agent-to-burster ratio and usually detonate on ground impact.
• Type category 2 designates a large munition which can produce either a single point source for biological agents and non-persistent chemical agents or a line source for persistent chemical agents. The type of fuzing used depends on the chemical/biological agent fill; low agent-to-burster ratios lead to point sources, and high agent-to-burster ratios lead to line sources. Munitions of this type are usually bombs.
• Type category 3 designates a large bulk-filled munition which produces a line source formed by dispersing the payload at high velocity; munitions of this type are usually missiles.
• Type category 4 designates a large munition filled with smaller submunitions which produces an area coverage of point sources; submunitions can be released anywhere from near the ground to higher than 10 kilometers. Flyout trajectories range from low angles for canisters, to medium angles for spheres, to high angles for finned submunitions. VLSTRACK does not contain a submunition flyout model, so the diameter of the impact area must be determined external to the program. Munitions of this type are usually missiles or bombs.
• Type category 5 designates a sprayer which disseminates chemical or biological agent over a period of time to produce a long plume; sprayers can operate either from a moving ground vehicle, plane, or boat or can be stationary and disseminate into the wind. Physical properties for a sprayer can be modified by the user in the HAZONE Scenario Configuration interface.

VLSTRACK agents are classified in the following categories:

• Type category 1 designates a persistent chemical agent in the neat form; persistent chemical agents are low volatility compounds such as nerve and blister agents and their simulants. Persistent chemical agents will create both a contact and an inhalation hazard for unprotected personnel.
  
  nerve agents:
  • Soviet VX - very low volatility
  • VX - the least volatile
  • GA - known as Tabun, low volatility
  • GB - known as Sarin, high volatility similar to that of water
  • GD - known as Soman, medium volatility
  • GF - known as cyclo-sarin, low volatility
  
  blister agents: (all low volatility)
  • HD - known as distilled mustard
  • L - known as Lewisite
  • HN-3 - known as tertiary nitrogen mustard
  • HL - known as mustard-Lewisite, a roughly 50:50 mix of distilled mustard and Lewisite
  • CX - known as phosgene oxime, a non-evaporating solid
  
  simulants:
  • DMMP - known as dimethyl methyl phosphate, a low volatility simulant for HD, GA, or GF
  • DMHP - known as dimethyl hydrogen phosphite, a medium volatility simulant for GD
  • BIS - a very low volatility simulant for VX
  • TCP - known as tri-chloro propane, a medium volatility simulant for GD
  • MS - known a methyl salicylate, a low volatility simulant for HD, GA, or GF
  • DMA - known as dimethyl acrylate, a medium volatility simulant for GD
  • DEM - known as diethyl malonate, a medium volatility simulant for GD
  • TEP - known as tri-ethyl phosphonate, a low volatility simulant for HD, GA, or GF
  • Water - a high volatility simulant for GB


• Type category 2 designates a persistent chemical agent in the thickened form; adding thickener to a persistent chemical agent will result in increased viscosity, reduced spread factor, and larger droplet diameter but should not change the volatility significantly. The mass fraction of thickener is not accounted for but is usually only about 2-5 percent. Toxicity effects are assumed to be unchanged from the neat form. Novel effects such as 'skinning', use of toxicity enhancers, microencapsulation, imbiber beads, etc. are not directly addressed by VLSTRACK but may be computed by altering the toxicity or volatility values or the type category in the file.
  
  Thickened chemical agents:
  • Thickened VX - nerve agent VX
  • Thickened GA - nerve agent Tabun
  • Thickened GB - nerve agent Sarin
  • Thickened GD - nerve agent Soman
  • Thickened GF - nerve agent cyclo-sarin
  • Thickened HD - blister agent distilled mustard
  
  All physical properties for each agent are the same as those for the neat agent except for a greatly increased viscosity and reduced spread factor.


• Type category 3 designates a dense vapor forming agent; dense vapor forming agents are simply chemical agents which exist as gases under ambient conditions. The chemical agents are in liquid form under pressure inside the munition and vaporize almost instantaneously when released to form a vapor cloud which is cooler and denser than the surrounding air. These agents, which include blood and choking agents and some toxic organic compounds, will only form dense vapor clouds under normal ambient conditions. The agents are modeled as persistent chemical agents if the air temperature at the release height is below the boiling temperature. Toxicity is defined the same as for the persistent chemical agents.
  
  Dense vapor forming agents:
  • AC - known as hydrogen cyanide (HCN), a blood agent
  • CK - known as cyanogen chloride (CNCl), a blood agent
  • CG - known as phosgene, a choking agent
  • Toxic organics 1, 2, and 3 - mask penetrating agents, classified when named
  • SF6 - sulfur hexafluoride, a simulant for any all-vapor chemical agent or respirable bio. agent particles


• Type category 4 designates a dusty agent; dusty agents result when persistent chemical agent liquid is mixed with porous solid particles, such as silica gel, of several microns or less in diameter. Because or their airborne nature, dusty agents are non-persistent even though they contain persistent chemical agent. Dusty agents will create an inhalation hazard for unprotected personnel. A percutaneous hazard may also result from deposition onto skin. The volatility of the chemical agent is lowered by approximately a factor of ten due to diffusional resistance within the particle pores. Only around 50 percent of the bulk fill weight will be chemical agent, and there will be empty spaces in between adjacent particles resulting in bulk densities less than 1 gram per cubic centimeter. Toxicity effects are not addressed by VLSTRACK for dusty agents. Microencapsulated chemical agent or chemicals which are disseminated as a solid may be modeled as biological agents, type category 5.
  
  Dusty agents:
  • Dusty VX - nerve agent VX
  • Dusty GA - nerve agent Tabun
  • Dusty GB - nerve agent Sarin
  • Dusty GD - nerve agent Soman
  • Dusty GF - nerve agent cyclo-sarin
  • Dusty HD - blister agent distilled mustard
  
  All physical properties for the liquid within the pores are the same as those for the neat agent. Viscosity and surface tension are not needed for calculations.


• Type category 5 designates a biological agent; biological agents can be either cells, spores, or toxin produced by cells, and are orders of magnitude more toxic than chemical agents. Biological agents are dispersed as either a dry powder or a wet slurry; some biological agents are not lethal but will incapacitate infected personnel. Physical properties for the agent are for the bulk form. Dosage values are in terms of pure, viable agent. Dosage output values must be divided by the initial agent purity, mass percent, and non-decayed fraction to obtain results in terms of initial bulk mass. Some biological agents have both lethal and incapacitating toxicity values.
  
  Biological agents:
  • Bio Agent 1a - biological organism in spore form in a water based slurry
  • Bio Agent 1b - biological organism in spore form as a purified powder
  • Bio Agent 2a - biological toxin in a chloroform based slurry
  • Bio Agent 2b - biological toxin as a 50 percent pure powder
  • Bio Agent 3a - biological organism in cell form in a water based slurry
  • Bio Agent 3b - biological organism in cell form as a purified powder
  • Bio Agent 4 - biological organism in cell form as a water based slurry
  • Bio Agent 5 - biological toxin as a purified powder
  
  All of the above biological agents are classified when named and associated with their physical properties.


• Type category 6 designates a biological agent slurry. Parameter entries are the same as for type category 5; however, droplet size distribution characteristics and dissemination efficiencies must reflect the actual release conditions for the slurry. The same parameters for type category 5 are meant to represent the respirable fraction of biological agent particles after evaporation is complete and larger particles have fallen out. Because the evaporation equations are specific to a water-based slurry, organic-based slurries must be treated using type category 5.
  
  Biological agents in slurry form:
  • Bio Slurry 1 - slurry form of Bio Agent 1, biological organism in spore form
  • Bio Slurry 3 - slurry form of Bio Agent 3, biological organism in cell form
  • Bio Slurry 4 - slurry form of Bio Agent 4, biological organism in cell form
  
  All of the above biological agents are classified when named and associated with their physical properties.

HAZONE Product Matrix

Hazard estimate dispersion maps are produced using data from each available meteorological data source for each HAZONE-enabled station (see Station Editor GUI). HAZONE map products are available via a matrix of product links, arranged by station and tau (forecast hour), for the user-selected Date-Time-Group (DTG) in the selected project area. Each station in the project area for which a HAZONE scenario is active has one or more rows of 24 cells, one cell for each tau, containing an O, indicating a product link, or an X, indicating no product exists for that tau. The resulting product matrix may be displayed in an all products format, showing product links for products from all available meteorological data sources in a selected DTG, or in a most-recent products format, in which only the product from the most recent meteorological data for a given tau is selectable in a matrix link cell.

See Overview for an overview of HAZONE.

Station Product Display

Clicking a matrix link cell for a station will display the station's products for that tau, identifying the data source, and displaying thumbnail images for each of the agent dispersion map types: Dosage, Concentration, and Deposition.

Each dispersion map sequence consists of:

• Overview: 2° x 2° thumbnail image of the final product (last hour), with 1° x 1° box bounding the detailed image area
• Images: link to a display of all the hourly maps displayed side-by-side in time sequence
• Attack+<n>hrs: 1° x 1° thumbnail images for each individual hour
• Animator: link to a display animator which animates the display of all the 1° x 1° hourly maps, with animation speed controls and a frame slider for fast access to individual images

Clicking a thumbnail image will display a full-size version of the map image with security classification labeling, a cursor at the scenario attack location, and a text panel with scenario information, meteorological data source information, and map legend information. The agent dispersion area is indicated by color-coded contour overlays representing up to 4 ranges of values for the dispersion map type. The map legend identifies the value ranges associated with each color overlay and the value units associated with the scenario agent.

See Overview for an overview of HAZONE.

Dosage

Dosage is the integral of concentration over time. Dosage captures the cumulative effect of the dispersion of agent concentration for the 5 hourly intervals following the assumed attack, providing a history of the dispersion path. The map legend identifies the dosage units associated with the scenario agent, the coverage area units, and the ranges of dosage values and coverage area value associated with each color contour overlay:

• Dusty agent dosage contour units - mg-min/m³
• Chemical agent dosage contour units - % Lethality
• Biological agent dosage contour units - % effectiveness or Effectivity

Only inhalation effects are considered in the calculation of dosage:

• % Lethality represents the percentage of exposed, unprotected personnel, breathing at a rate of 15 L/min, expected to die as a result of the exposure.
• % Effectivity represents the percentage of exposed, unprotected personnel, breathing at a rate of 15 L/min, expected to fully contract the illness associated with the biological agent as a result of the exposure.

VLSTRACK calculates coverage areas for the entire scenario area by adding the area represented by each grid point which equals or exceeds a contour's threshold value. Thus, the coverage areas for higher threshold values overlay the coverage areas for lower threshold values (i.e., coverage areas for lower threshold values are inclusive of the coverage areas for higher threshold values), and an image's map legend coverage area values apply to the entire contours, whether or not the entire contours are shown in the image. To determine the exclusive coverage area values for lower threshold contours, subtract the higher threshold coverage area values from them.

See Station Product Display for features common to all dispersion type displays.
See Overview for an overview of HAZONE.

Concentration

Concentration is displayed for the 5 hourly intervals following the assumed attack. The map legend identifies the concentration units associated with the scenario agent and the ranges of values associated with each color contour overlay:

• Chemical agent concentration contour units - mg/m³ or μg/m³
• Biological agent concentration contour units - μg/m³

The contour range values for concentration have been adjusted to produce overlays approximately the size of the dosage overlays, so that the dispersion path of the agent concentration can be more easily seen in examining the cumulative effect in the dosage images.

Deposition

Deposition is displayed for only the first hourly interval following the assumed attack. The map legend identifies the deposition units as mg/m² and gives the ranges of values associated with each color contour overlay.

See Station Product Display for features common to all dispersion type displays.
See Overview for an overview of HAZONE.

References

• Station Editor GUI User's Guide
• COAMPS-OS^® User's Manual
• SOFTWARE USER'S MANUAL FOR THE CHEMICAL/BIOLOGICAL AGENT VAPOR, LIQUID, AND SOLID TRACKING (VLSTRACK) COMPUTER MODEL, VERSION 3.1, NSWCDD/TR-01/83
  by Timothy J.Bauer and Matthew G. Wolski, SYSTEMS RESEARCH AND TECHNOLOGY DEPARTMENT, DAHLGREN DIVISION NAVAL SURFACE WARFARE CENTER